Bitcoin fell 2% to about $62,380 as money markets lifted the odds of a July Fed rate hike to roughly 50%, up from 10% just days earlier, after Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled rates may need to rise to control inflation. The two-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since early last year amid surging oil prices and U.S.-Iran tensions, with Tuesday's CPI report and testimony from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh now the next catalysts.
why it mattersA jump from 10% to 50% odds of a July hike in just days is a sharp repricing that explains bitcoin's pullback better than any crypto-specific news.
CoinDesk
US spot bitcoin and ether ETFs pulled in a combined $281.8M for the week ending July 11 -- $197.4M into bitcoin funds and $84.4M into ether funds -- ending the longest outflow streak since the products launched in January 2024. BlackRock's IBIT and ETHA led Friday's inflows while most other issuers saw no net flows; both asset classes remain deeply underwater for the year.
why it mattersA single positive week recovers only about 3% of the prior outflows, so it's too early to call this a trend reversal rather than a pause.
The Block
The Senate came back from recess on July 13 with Majority Leader Thune prioritizing defense authorization first, likely pushing floor consideration of the crypto market-structure bill to the week of July 20. Four disputes -- Trump's $1.4B crypto disclosure, developer protections, stablecoin yield, and SEC-CFTC vacancies -- still block Democratic support, with an August 7 recess deadline effectively ending this session's shot at passage if they aren't resolved.
why it mattersCLARITY Act passage would give bitcoin and crypto markets the clearest US regulatory framework yet -- its odds swinging on ethics disputes is a real near-term catalyst risk.
Tech Times